RBs vs Houston Texans
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | James Cook | RB1 | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.9 |
| Frank Gore Jr. | RB2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | ||
| Ray Davis | RB3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | ||
| 2 |  CIN | Chase Brown | RB1 | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| Samaje Perine | RB2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3.2 | ||
| Average | 7.4 | 29.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | |||
| Median | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | |||
| High | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.2 | |||
| Low | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonathan Taylor should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonathan Taylor has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonathan Taylor's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonathan Taylor usually produces.
Projected is Jonathan Taylor's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 19 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 25.1 |
| 2 | KC | 24 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29.2 |
| Taylor avg | 21.5 | 95.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 27.1 | |
| Texans All avg | 7.4 | 29.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | |
| Difference | -14.1 | -65.2 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -25.5 | +0.0 | -22.2 | |
| Projected | 18.7 | 82.6 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 27.4 | 0.0 | 20.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Taylor averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jonathan TaylorMedium confidence · 20.9 proj ptsMust Start
Jonathan Taylor usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jonathan Taylor averages 27.1 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 27.4) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Texans have allowed 10.6 points to RB1s over 2 games (-33% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -3%: Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.5 points for IND (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Henry To'oTo'o (LB) is on IR, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Henry To'oTo'o (LB) is on IR, which helps the running game.
- Projection: 20.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonathan Taylor vs the Texans
Prediction for Jonathan Taylor
Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 21.2 points for Jonathan Taylor if playing as a RB1. Jonathan Taylor has averaged 27.1 over 2 games, and the Texans have given up 10.6 to RB1s (-33% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonathan Taylor scored: Wk 1 25.1, Wk 2 29.2. Average 27.1; weighted toward recent games it is 24.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Texans allowed 10.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is -33%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 24.3 x 0.87 = 21.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonathan Taylor is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.7 points, leaning on Jonathan Taylor's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 21.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all RBs have averaged 7.4 carries, 29.8 rushing yards and 1.4 receptions per player-game against the Texans across 2 games.
- The Texans allow 12.4 PPR points to the position per game, -41% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Chase Brown (11.2 pts, 20 car, 80 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.0 vs 3.4; car 7.4 vs 4.3; rush yds 29.8 vs 17.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, James Cook (9.9 pts, 13 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.0 vs 3.8; car 7.4 vs 6.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 5 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.3 to 11.2 (median 3.2).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 0 of 5 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.