TEs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE1 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| Blake Whiteheart | TE2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 | ||
| 2 |  DEN | Nate Adkins | TE1 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 12.8 |
| Evan Engram | TE2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2.7 | ||
| Average | 2.0 | 1.8 | 21.0 | 0.3 | 5.5 | |||
| Median | 2.0 | 1.5 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |||
| High | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 12.8 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Brevyn Spann-Ford
Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 2.5 points for Brevyn Spann-Ford if playing as a TE1. Brevyn Spann-Ford has averaged 3.4 over 1 game, and the Jaguars have given up 8.4 to TE1s (-18% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brevyn Spann-Ford scored: Wk 1 3.4. Average 3.4; weighted toward recent games it is 2.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Jaguars allowed 8.4 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 2.7 x 0.93 = 2.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brevyn Spann-Ford is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.5 points, leaning on Brevyn Spann-Ford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all TEs have averaged 1.8 receptions, 21.0 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs per player-game against the Jaguars across 2 games.
- The Jaguars allow 11.0 PPR points to the position per game, -15% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Nate Adkins (12.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.5 vs 3.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 4 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.4 to 12.8 (median 3.4).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 player-games (25%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Brevyn Spann-Ford usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Brevyn Spann-Ford averages 3.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 3.4) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Jaguars have allowed 8.4 points to TE1s over 2 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.4) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 2.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Brevyn Spann-Ford's stats vs the Jaguars
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brevyn Spann-Ford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brevyn Spann-Ford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brevyn Spann-Ford usually produces.
Projected is Brevyn Spann-Ford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Spann-Ford avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Jaguars All avg | 2.0 | 1.8 | 21.0 | 0.3 | 5.5 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | -0.3 | +7.0 | +0.3 | +2.1 | |
| Projected | 1.9 | 1.9 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Spann-Ford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.