WRs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 9 · through 7 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Nico Collins | WR1 | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 21.2 |
| Jaylin Noel | WR2 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 | ||
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR3 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 | ||
| 2 |  DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR1 | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| Jameson Williams | WR2 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 | ||
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR3 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 | ||
| 3 |  LAC | Tre Harris | WR1 | 7 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 13.6 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR2 | 5 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 10.6 | ||
| Quentin Johnston | WR3 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 | ||
| 4 |  NE | Romeo Doubs | WR1 | 9 | 6 | 58 | 2 | 23.8 |
| Efton Chism III | WR2 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 12.2 | ||
| Mack Hollins | WR3 | 4 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 | ||
| 5 |  LA | Puka Nacua | WR1 | 24 | 17 | 138 | 1 | 37.7 |
| Davante Adams | WR2 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 22.1 | ||
| Tutu Atwell | WR3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
| 6 |  LV | Tre Tucker | WR1 | 7 | 5 | 97 | 2 | 26.7 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 | ||
| Cody White | WR3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 8 |  BAL | Rashod Bateman | WR1 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.2 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 | ||
| Zay Flowers | WR3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Average | 6.1 | 3.8 | 49.0 | 0.5 | 11.9 | |||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | |||
| High | 24 | 17 | 142 | 2 | 37.7 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Justin Jefferson should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Justin Jefferson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Justin Jefferson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Justin Jefferson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Justin Jefferson usually produces.
Projected is Justin Jefferson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 | 31.2 |
| 2 | CHI | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 | TB | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 5 | NO | 7 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 7 | IND | 7 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 8 | DET | 9 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 14.3 |
| Jefferson avg | 6.7 | 4.7 | 55.8 | 0.7 | 14.4 | |
| Bills Top 3 avg | 6.1 | 3.8 | 49.0 | 0.5 | 11.9 | |
| Difference | -0.5 | -0.9 | -6.8 | -0.1 | -2.5 | |
| Projected | 8.3 | 5.8 | 69.3 | 0.8 | 16.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jefferson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Justin JeffersonGood confidence · 16.1 proj pts7/10 start
Justin Jefferson usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Justin Jefferson averages 14.4 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 13.4) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Bills have allowed 23.1 points to WR1s over 7 games (+35% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +24% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.9) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +0%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.8 points for MIN (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- QB change: Kyler Murray is now throwing (6.8 yds/att vs 6.9 earlier), x0.99.
- Flag: Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
- Projection: 16.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJustin Jefferson vs the Bills
Prediction for Justin Jefferson
Nobody knows which slot Justin Jefferson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 16.2 points for Justin Jefferson if playing as a WR1. Justin Jefferson has averaged 14.4 over 6 games, and the Bills have given up 23.1 to WR1s (+35% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Justin Jefferson scored: Wk 1 31.2, Wk 2 8.5, Wk 3 5.2, Wk 5 18.8, Wk 7 8.4, Wk 8 14.3. Average 14.4; weighted toward recent games it is 13.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bills allowed 23.1 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +35%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +24% adjustment (x1.24).
4. Result. 13.0 x 1.24 = 16.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Justin Jefferson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.6 points, leaning on Justin Jefferson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.8 receptions, 49.0 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs per player-game against the Bills across 7 games.
- The Bills allow 35.8 PPR points to the position per game, +19% versus the league average of 30.1 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Puka Nacua (37.7 pts, 17 rec, 138 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.9 vs 10.6; rec 3.8 vs 3.1; yds 49.0 vs 44.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Amon-Ra St. Brown (35.2 pts, 9 rec, 142 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.9 vs 10.8; rec 3.8 vs 3.5; yds 49.0 vs 44.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 9 of 21 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 37.7 (median 7.3).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 7 of 21 player-games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.