WRs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 9 · through 8 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Zay Flowers | WR1 | 6 | 5 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 |
| Chris Moore | WR2 | 2 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 6.3 | ||
| LaJohntay Wester | WR3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 | ||
| 2 |  KC | Xavier Worthy | WR1 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 13.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR2 | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 | 12.6 | ||
| Rashee Rice | WR3 | 6 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 | ||
| 3 |  HOU | Xavier Hutchinson | WR1 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 8.5 |
| Jaylin Noel | WR2 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 4.5 | ||
| Kayshon Boutte | WR3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
| 4 |  WAS | Treylon Burks | WR1 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 1 | 11.7 |
| Dyami Brown | WR2 | 4 | 3 | 65 | 0 | 9.5 | ||
| Stefon Diggs | WR3 | 9 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 8.5 | ||
| 5 |  PIT | Germie Bernard | WR1 | 9 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 14.4 |
| DK Metcalf | WR2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 5.3 | ||
| Roman Wilson | WR3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 6 |  TEN | Carnell Tate | WR1 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 19.0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR2 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 5.2 | ||
| Elic Ayomanor | WR3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
| 7 |  MIN | Justin Jefferson | WR1 | 7 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR2 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 5.4 | ||
| Jordan Addison | WR3 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.3 | ||
| 8 |  JAX | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 8.2 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 4.4 | ||
| Parker Washington | WR3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3.6 | ||
| Average | 4.3 | 2.8 | 41.0 | 0.2 | 8.4 | |||
| Median | 3.5 | 2.5 | 29.5 | 0.0 | 7.3 | |||
| High | 9 | 6 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How CeeDee Lamb should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game CeeDee Lamb has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot CeeDee Lamb will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus CeeDee Lamb's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than CeeDee Lamb usually produces.
Projected is CeeDee Lamb's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 8 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 15.4 |
| 2 | WAS | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 |
| 3 | BAL | 8 | 7 | 112 | 0 | 20.2 |
| 4 | HOU | 21 | 17 | 189 | 1 | 41.3 |
| 5 | TB | 5 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 6 | GB | 18 | 9 | 70 | 0 | 16.0 |
| 7 | PHI | 12 | 5 | 74 | 2 | 24.4 |
| 8 | ARI | 11 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 12.8 |
| Lamb avg | 11.5 | 7.5 | 88.6 | 0.8 | 21.0 | |
| Colts Top 3 avg | 4.3 | 2.8 | 41.0 | 0.2 | 8.4 | |
| Difference | -7.2 | -4.7 | -47.6 | -0.5 | -12.7 | |
| Projected | 9.5 | 6.2 | 73.1 | 0.6 | 17.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lamb averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · CeeDee LambGood confidence · 17.9 proj pts7/10 start
CeeDee Lamb usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- CeeDee Lamb averages 21.0 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 19.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Colts have allowed 6.6 points to WR2s over 8 games (-24% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -18% adjustment.
- Last season's average (15.5) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +14%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 28.5 points for DAL (league avg 22.6); Favored by 5.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Justin Walley (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+2%): Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Lamb.
- Projection: 17.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreCeeDee Lamb vs the Colts
Prediction for CeeDee Lamb
Nobody knows which slot CeeDee Lamb will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 15.2 points for CeeDee Lamb if playing as a WR2. CeeDee Lamb has averaged 21.0 over 8 games, and the Colts have given up 6.6 to WR2s (-24% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. CeeDee Lamb scored: Wk 1 15.4, Wk 2 35.3, Wk 3 20.2, Wk 4 41.3, Wk 5 2.9, Wk 6 16.0, Wk 7 24.4, Wk 8 12.8. Average 21.0; weighted toward recent games it is 18.5.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Colts allowed 6.6 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -18% adjustment (x0.82).
4. Result. 18.5 x 0.82 = 15.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely CeeDee Lamb is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.4 points, leaning on CeeDee Lamb's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 2.8 receptions, 41.0 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs per player-game against the Colts across 8 games.
- The Colts allow 25.1 PPR points to the position per game, -17% versus the league average of 30.1 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Germie Bernard (14.4 pts, 6 rec, 80 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.4 vs 8.1; rec 2.8 vs 2.7; yds 41.0 vs 39.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Zay Flowers (26.0 pts, 150 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.4 vs 7.6; yds 41.0 vs 36.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 24 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 26.0 (median 7.3).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 5 of 24 player-games (21%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.