WRs vs Los Angeles Rams
As of Week 16 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR1 | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.0 |
| Mike Evans | WR2 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 | ||
| Demarcus Robinson | WR3 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 1 | 13.0 | ||
| Average | 5.7 | 4.7 | 49.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | |||
| Median | 7.0 | 6.0 | 49.0 | 1.0 | 16.9 | |||
| High | 7 | 6 | 50 | 1 | 18.0 | |||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 48 | 1 | 13.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 28.6 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 34.4 over 2 games, and the Rams have given up 18.0 to WR1s (+6% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5. Average 34.4; weighted toward recent games it is 28.2.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Rams allowed 18.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +6%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 28.2 x 1.02 = 28.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (28.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 17.2 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 29.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- top-3 WRs have averaged 4.7 receptions, 49.0 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Rams across 1 game.
- The Rams allow 47.9 PPR points to the position per game, +61% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Demarcus Robinson (2 rec) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 4.7 vs 6.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 3 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 13.0 to 18.0 (median 16.9).
- Every player-game in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 3 of 3 player-games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 34.4 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 35.3) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Rams have allowed 18.0 points to WR1s over 1 game (+6% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +2% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 28.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's stats vs the Rams
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.0 | 8.5 | 138.5 | 2.0 | 34.4 | |
| Rams Top 3 avg | 5.7 | 4.7 | 49.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | |
| Difference | -5.3 | -3.8 | -89.5 | -1.0 | -18.4 | |
| Projected | 11.2 | 8.6 | 140.6 | 2.0 | 28.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.