WRs vs Las Vegas Raiders
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Caleb Douglas | WR1 | 7 | 5 | 94 | 0 | 14.4 |
| Malik Washington | WR2 | 8 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 6.3 | ||
| Chris Bell | WR3 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3.5 | ||
| 2 |  LAC | Ladd McConkey | WR1 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Tre Harris | WR2 | 3 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 6.3 | ||
| Quentin Johnston | WR3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4 | ||
| Average | 4.7 | 2.3 | 44.5 | 0.0 | 6.6 | |||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | |||
| High | 8 | 5 | 94 | 0 | 14.4 | |||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Courtland Sutton
Nobody knows which slot Courtland Sutton will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 7.8 points for Courtland Sutton if playing as a WR2. Courtland Sutton has averaged 4.3 over 2 games, and the Raiders have given up 6.3 to WR2s (-24% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Courtland Sutton scored: Wk 1 3.1, Wk 2 5.5. Average 4.3; weighted toward recent games it is 8.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Raiders allowed 6.3 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -10% adjustment (x0.90).
4. Result. 8.7 x 0.90 = 7.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Courtland Sutton is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.7 points, leaning on Courtland Sutton's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- top-3 WRs have averaged 2.3 receptions, 44.5 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Raiders across 2 games.
- The Raiders allow 19.7 PPR points to the position per game, -34% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Caleb Douglas (14.4 pts, 5 rec, 94 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.6 vs 5.0; rec 2.3 vs 1.8; yds 44.5 vs 34.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Quentin Johnston (7 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 44.5 vs 52.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.4 to 14.4 (median 6.3).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Courtland Sutton usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Courtland Sutton averages 4.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 4.4) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Raiders have allowed 6.3 points to WR2s over 2 games (-24% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -10% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Courtland Sutton's stats vs the Raiders
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Courtland Sutton has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Courtland Sutton will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Courtland Sutton's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Courtland Sutton usually produces.
Projected is Courtland Sutton's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2 | JAX | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| Sutton avg | 4.5 | 2.5 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | |
| Raiders Top 3 avg | 4.7 | 2.3 | 44.5 | 0.0 | 6.6 | |
| Difference | +0.2 | -0.2 | +26.5 | +0.0 | +2.3 | |
| Projected | 4.1 | 2.3 | 16.3 | 0.0 | 7.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Sutton averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.