WRs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 8.5 | 6.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 | 17.0 | ||
| Median | 8.5 | 6.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 | 17.0 | ||
| High | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 | ||
| Low | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Garrett Wilson
Nobody knows which slot Garrett Wilson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 14.9 points for Garrett Wilson if playing as a WR1. Garrett Wilson has averaged 15.3 over 2 games, and the Patriots have given up 17.0 to WR1s (+0% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Garrett Wilson scored: Wk 1 13.9, Wk 2 16.7. Average 15.3; weighted toward recent games it is 14.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Patriots allowed 17.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +0%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 14.8 x 1.00 = 14.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Garrett Wilson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.9 points, leaning on Garrett Wilson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR1s have averaged 6.5 receptions, 75.0 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 2 games.
- The Patriots allow 17.0 PPR points to WR1s, +0% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.8 to 26.2 (median 17.0).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Garrett Wilson averages 15.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 15.5) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Patriots have allowed 17.0 points to WR1s over 2 games (+0% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +0% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 14.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Garrett Wilson's stats vs the Patriots
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Garrett Wilson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Garrett Wilson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Garrett Wilson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Garrett Wilson usually produces.
Projected is Garrett Wilson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 7 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 2 | GB | 7 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 16.7 |
| Wilson avg | 7.0 | 5.5 | 68.0 | 0.5 | 15.3 | |
| Patriots WR3 avg | 6.0 | 2.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | -3.0 | -52.5 | -0.5 | -11.3 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 64.9 | 0.5 | 14.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Wilson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.