WRs vs Tennessee Titans
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYJ | Garrett Wilson | WR1 | 7 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 13.9 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR2 | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR3 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
| 2 |  PHI | DeVonta Smith | WR1 | 13 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 27.7 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR2 | 6 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 12.4 | ||
| Darius Cooper | WR3 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 10.6 | ||
| Average | 5.5 | 4.5 | 64.3 | 0.3 | 12.9 | |||
| Median | 4.5 | 4.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 11.5 | |||
| High | 13 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 27.7 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Jalen Nailor
Nobody knows which slot Jalen Nailor will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Titans.
I predict about 5.9 points for Jalen Nailor if playing as a WR3. Jalen Nailor has averaged 3.8 over 2 games, and the Titans have given up 7.3 to WR3s (+60% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jalen Nailor scored: Wk 1 5.7, Wk 2 1.9. Average 3.8; weighted toward recent games it is 4.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Titans allowed 7.3 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +60%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +24% adjustment (x1.24).
4. Result. 4.8 x 1.24 = 5.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jalen Nailor is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.5 points, leaning on Jalen Nailor's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- top-3 WRs have averaged 4.5 receptions, 64.3 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs per player-game against the Titans across 2 games.
- The Titans allow 38.8 PPR points to the position per game, +30% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, DeVonta Smith (27.7 pts, 10 rec, 117 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.9 vs 10.0; rec 4.5 vs 3.4; yds 64.3 vs 53.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Darius Cooper (2 rec, 26 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 4.5 vs 5.0; yds 64.3 vs 72.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.0 to 27.7 (median 11.5).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Jalen Nailor usually plays as the team's WR3, so the verdict uses the WR3 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jalen Nailor averages 3.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 3.6) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Titans have allowed 7.3 points to WR3s over 2 games (+60% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +24% adjustment.
- Last season's average (5.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 5.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jalen Nailor's stats vs the Titans
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Titans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jalen Nailor has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Titans opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jalen Nailor will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Titans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jalen Nailor's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jalen Nailor usually produces.
Projected is Jalen Nailor's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Titans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 2 | LAC | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Nailor avg | 4.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | |
| Titans Top 3 avg | 5.5 | 4.5 | 64.3 | 0.3 | 12.9 | |
| Difference | +1.5 | +2.5 | +46.3 | +0.3 | +9.1 | |
| Projected | 5.0 | 2.5 | 22.3 | 0.0 | 5.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Nailor averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.