WRs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 |
| 2 |  DAL | CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 |
| Average | 6.5 | 5.0 | 113.0 | 1.5 | 25.3 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 5.0 | 113.0 | 1.5 | 25.3 | ||
| High | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 33.8 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 34.4 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 25.3 to WR1s (+49% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5. Average 34.4; weighted toward recent games it is 28.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 25.3 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +49%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 28.2 x 1.20 = 33.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (33.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 20.3 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 34.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR1s have averaged 5.0 receptions, 113.0 receiving yards and 1.5 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 25.3 PPR points to WR1s, +49% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 15.3 to 35.3 (median 25.3).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 70 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 34.4 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 35.3) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Commanders have allowed 25.3 points to WR1s over 2 games (+49% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -2%: Vegas total 39.5, implied 23.0 points for SEA (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (77F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Nick Cross (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Javon Kinlaw (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 33.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's stats vs the Commanders
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.0 | 8.5 | 138.5 | 2.0 | 34.4 | |
| Commanders WR1 avg | 6.5 | 5.0 | 113.0 | 1.5 | 25.3 | |
| Difference | -4.5 | -3.5 | -25.5 | -0.5 | -9.1 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 165.8 | 2.4 | 33.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.