Mike Evans
WR
San Francisco 49ersQ▲ Hot
- Teammate Christian McCaffrey (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Deebo Samuel Sr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 |
| 2 |  DAL | CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 |
| 3 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 6 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 5 |  NYG | Malik Nabers | 20 | 11 | 121 | 1 | 29.1 |
| Average | 10.6 | 7.2 | 103.4 | 1.2 | 24.9 | ||
| Median | 9.0 | 8.0 | 121.0 | 1.0 | 29.1 | ||
| High | 20 | 11 | 153 | 2 | 35.4 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 9.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mike Evans should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mike Evans has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mike Evans will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mike Evans's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mike Evans usually produces.
Projected is Mike Evans's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 3 | ARI | 6 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 12.4 |
| 4 | DEN | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SEA | 10 | 7 | 113 | 1 | 26.3 |
| 6 | WAS | 5 | 3 | 94 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Evans avg | 6.5 | 4.5 | 70.0 | 0.5 | 14.8 | |
| Commanders WR1 avg | 10.6 | 7.2 | 103.4 | 1.2 | 24.9 | |
| Difference | +4.1 | +2.7 | +33.4 | +0.7 | +10.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Evans averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMike Evans vs the Commanders
Prediction for Mike Evans
Nobody knows which slot Mike Evans will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 18.7 points for Mike Evans if playing as a WR1. Mike Evans has averaged 15.3 over 5 games, and the Commanders have given up 24.9 to WR1s (+42% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mike Evans scored: Wk 1 16.9, Wk 2 8.4, Wk 3 12.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 26.3. Average 15.3; weighted toward recent games it is 14.8.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Commanders allowed 24.9 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is +42%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +26% adjustment (x1.26).
4. Result. 14.8 x 1.26 = 18.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mike Evans is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.6 points, leaning on Mike Evans's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 7.2 receptions, 103.4 receiving yards and 1.2 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 5 games.
- The Commanders allow 24.9 PPR points to WR1s, +42% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Laquon Treadwell (9.2 pts, 42 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 24.9 vs 28.8; yds 103.4 vs 118.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, CeeDee Lamb (153 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 103.4 vs 91.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.2 to 35.4 (median 29.1).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 5 games (80%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.