Marcus Mariota
QB
Washington Commanders
- Top target Terry McLaurin is on IR, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| 3 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 16 | 27 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.7 |
| Average | 21.7 | 33.0 | 291.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 22.3 | 0.3 | 21.9 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 27.0 | 324.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | ||
| High | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 29.0 | ||
| Low | 16 | 25 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Marcus Mariota should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Marcus Mariota has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Marcus Mariota will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Marcus Mariota's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Marcus Mariota usually produces.
Projected is Marcus Mariota's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | DAL | 11 | 16 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 31 | 183 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 4 | IND | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Mariota avg | 11.0 | 17.0 | 113.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 16.3 | 0.0 | 11.5 | |
| Colts QB1 avg | 21.7 | 33.0 | 291.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 22.3 | 0.3 | 21.9 | |
| Difference | +10.7 | +16.0 | +177.7 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +1.3 | +6.0 | +0.3 | +10.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mariota averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarcus Mariota vs the Colts
Prediction for Marcus Mariota
Nobody knows which slot Marcus Mariota will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 15.8 points for Marcus Mariota if playing as a QB1. Marcus Mariota has averaged 14.6 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 21.9 to QB1s (+28% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Marcus Mariota scored: Wk 2 8.7, Wk 3 20.4. Average 14.6; weighted toward recent games it is 13.9.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Colts allowed 21.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +28%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +14% adjustment (x1.14).
4. Result. 13.9 x 1.14 = 15.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Marcus Mariota is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.5 points, leaning on Marcus Mariota's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 291.0 passing yards, 1.7 passing TDs and 22.3 rushing yards against the Colts across 3 games.
- The Colts allow 21.9 PPR points to QB1s, +28% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 3 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 11.7 to 29.0 (median 25.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 3 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.