Marcus Mariota
QB
Washington Commanders
- Top target Terry McLaurin is on IR, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 |
| 2 |  NYG | Jameis Winston | 11 | 27 | 111 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 |  DEN | Bo Nix | 17 | 34 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 24.1 |
| 4 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 12 | 27 | 93 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 13.5 |
| 5 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 12 | 19 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 |
| 6 |  ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 24 | 35 | 218 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| 7 |  LV | Kirk Cousins | 26 | 44 | 295 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 8 |  LAC | Justin Herbert | 24 | 32 | 257 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 18.9 | 31.5 | 196.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 24.9 | 0.3 | 15.9 | ||
| Median | 20.5 | 33.0 | 207.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | ||
| High | 26 | 44 | 295 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 | ||
| Low | 11 | 19 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Marcus Mariota should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Marcus Mariota has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Marcus Mariota will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Marcus Mariota's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Marcus Mariota usually produces.
Projected is Marcus Mariota's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | DAL | 11 | 16 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 31 | 183 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 4 | IND | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Mariota avg | 11.0 | 17.0 | 113.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 16.3 | 0.0 | 11.5 | |
| Rams QB1 avg | 18.9 | 31.5 | 196.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 24.9 | 0.3 | 15.9 | |
| Difference | +7.9 | +14.5 | +83.5 | -0.1 | +0.9 | +2.0 | +8.5 | +0.3 | +4.4 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 10.7 | 16.6 | 110.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 11.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mariota averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Marcus MariotaGood confidence · 12.2 proj pts1/10 start
- Marcus Mariota averages 11.5 PPR points over 3 games (recent-weighted 11.2) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Rams have allowed 15.9 points to QB1s over 8 games (-4% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.6) is blended in at 40% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +1%: Vegas total 48.5, implied 22.0 points for WAS (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 4.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (61F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+6%): Opposing starter Trent McDuffie (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Kam Curl (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 12.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarcus Mariota vs the Rams
Prediction for Marcus Mariota
Nobody knows which slot Marcus Mariota will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 11.4 points for Marcus Mariota if playing as a QB1. Marcus Mariota has averaged 11.5 over 3 games, and the Rams have given up 15.9 to QB1s (-4% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Marcus Mariota scored: Wk 2 8.7, Wk 3 20.4, Wk 4 5.3. Average 11.5; weighted toward recent games it is 11.7.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Rams allowed 15.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is -4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 11.7 x 0.97 = 11.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Marcus Mariota is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.4 points, leaning on Marcus Mariota's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 196.9 passing yards, 1.3 passing TDs and 24.9 rushing yards against the Rams across 8 games.
- The Rams allow 15.9 PPR points to QB1s, -4% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Josh Allen (30.5 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.9 vs 13.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Bo Nix (24.1 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.9 vs 14.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.5 to 30.5 (median 17.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 80 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 8 games (63%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.