Marcus Mariota
QB
Washington Commanders
- Top target Terry McLaurin is on IR, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Seahawks in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NE | Drake Maye | 23 | 33 | 178 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2 |  ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 17 | 28 | 95 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Average | 20.0 | 30.5 | 136.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | ||
| Median | 20.0 | 30.5 | 136.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | ||
| High | 23 | 33 | 178 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 9.8 | ||
| Low | 17 | 28 | 95 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Marcus Mariota should do vs the SeahawksSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Seahawks, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Marcus Mariota has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Seahawks opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Marcus Mariota will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Seahawks avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Marcus Mariota's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Marcus Mariota usually produces.
Projected is Marcus Mariota's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Seahawks were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | DAL | 11 | 16 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 31 | 183 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 4 | IND | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Mariota avg | 11.0 | 17.0 | 113.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 16.3 | 0.0 | 11.5 | |
| Seahawks QB1 avg | 20.0 | 30.5 | 136.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | |
| Difference | +9.0 | +13.5 | +23.2 | -0.3 | +2.0 | +1.7 | +10.7 | +0.0 | -3.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mariota averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarcus Mariota vs the Seahawks
Prediction for Marcus Mariota
Nobody knows which slot Marcus Mariota will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Seahawks.
I predict about 9.0 points for Marcus Mariota if playing as a QB1. Marcus Mariota has averaged 8.7 over 1 game, and the Seahawks have given up 8.2 to QB1s (-52% vs the league average of 16.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Marcus Mariota scored: Wk 2 8.7. Average 8.7; weighted toward recent games it is 11.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Seahawks allowed 8.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.8, so that is -52%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -21% adjustment (x0.79).
4. Result. 11.3 x 0.79 = 9.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Marcus Mariota is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.4 points, leaning on Marcus Mariota's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 136.5 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 27.0 rushing yards against the Seahawks across 2 games.
- The Seahawks allow 8.2 PPR points to QB1s, -52% versus the league average of 16.8 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.5 to 9.8 (median 8.2).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 80 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.