Carson Wentz
QB
Minnesota Vikings
This is how QBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 29.8 |
| 3 |  SEA | Sam Darnold | 31 | 45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 4 |  IND | Daniel Jones | 19 | 34 | 143 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7.9 |
| 5 |  NYG | Jameis Winston | 33 | 54 | 326 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 25.7 |
| 6 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 21 | 29 | 264 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17.4 |
| 8 | PHI | Tanner McKee | 23 | 34 | 212 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Average | 23.9 | 36.0 | 258.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 22.7 | 0.1 | 20.0 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 34.0 | 264.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 24.7 | ||
| High | 33 | 54 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 14 | 25 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Carson Wentz should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Carson Wentz has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Carson Wentz will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Carson Wentz's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Carson Wentz usually produces.
Projected is Carson Wentz's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 12 | 19 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 2 | CHI | 11 | 20 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Wentz avg | 11.5 | 19.5 | 138.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 12.8 | |
| Commanders QB1 avg | 23.9 | 36.0 | 258.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 22.7 | 0.1 | 20.0 | |
| Difference | +12.4 | +16.5 | +120.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +20.2 | +0.1 | +7.3 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 13.2 | 22.5 | 158.9 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 15.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Wentz averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Carson WentzMedium confidence · 15.0 proj pts1/10 start
- Carson Wentz averages 12.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.1) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Commanders have allowed 20.0 points to QB1s over 7 games (+22% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +15% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 15.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreCarson Wentz vs the Commanders
Prediction for Carson Wentz
Nobody knows which slot Carson Wentz will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 15.0 points for Carson Wentz if playing as a QB1. Carson Wentz has averaged 12.8 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 20.0 to QB1s (+22% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Carson Wentz scored: Wk 1 19.2, Wk 2 6.3. Average 12.8; weighted toward recent games it is 13.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Commanders allowed 20.0 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is +22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 13.1 x 1.15 = 15.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Carson Wentz is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.0 points, leaning on Carson Wentz's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 258.0 passing yards, 2.1 passing TDs and 22.7 rushing yards against the Commanders across 7 games.
- The Commanders allow 20.0 PPR points to QB1s, +22% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Dak Prescott (29.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 20.0 vs 18.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Daniel Jones (7.9 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 20.0 vs 22.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.0 to 29.8 (median 24.7).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 7 games (86%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.