Dak Prescott
QB
Dallas Cowboys
- Top target George Pickens is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Joe Burrow | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2 |  CLE | Deshaun Watson | 24 | 30 | 238 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 3 |  MIN | Kyler Murray | 15 | 29 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 4 |  GB | Jordan Love | 22 | 30 | 197 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 0 | 13.1 |
| Average | 21.5 | 31.0 | 214.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 14.3 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 30.0 | 217.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 13.6 | ||
| High | 25 | 35 | 254 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19.7 | ||
| Low | 15 | 29 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 10.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Dak Prescott should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Dak Prescott has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Dak Prescott will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Dak Prescott's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Dak Prescott usually produces.
Projected is Dak Prescott's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 22 | 34 | 175 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 2 | WAS | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 29.8 |
| 3 | BAL | 25 | 40 | 276 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 18.9 |
| 4 | HOU | 32 | 45 | 335 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 18.1 |
| 5 | TB | 24 | 42 | 316 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 6 | GB | 34 | 54 | 258 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 7 | PHI | 15 | 27 | 212 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 23.3 |
| 8 | ARI | 19 | 29 | 195 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 19.8 |
| Prescott avg | 24.6 | 37.8 | 255.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 12.6 | 0.1 | 18.5 | |
| Buccaneers QB1 avg | 21.5 | 31.0 | 214.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 14.3 | |
| Difference | -3.1 | -6.8 | -41.5 | -0.3 | +0.1 | +1.6 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -4.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Prescott averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDak Prescott vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Dak Prescott
Nobody knows which slot Dak Prescott will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 18.1 points for Dak Prescott if playing as a QB1. Dak Prescott has averaged 20.3 over 4 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 14.3 to QB1s (-14% vs the league average of 16.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Dak Prescott scored: Wk 1 14.4, Wk 2 29.8, Wk 3 18.9, Wk 4 18.1. Average 20.3; weighted toward recent games it is 19.6.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Buccaneers allowed 14.3 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.6, so that is -14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 19.6 x 0.92 = 18.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Dak Prescott is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.0 points, leaning on Dak Prescott's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 214.3 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs and 12.8 rushing yards against the Buccaneers across 4 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 14.3 PPR points to QB1s, -14% versus the league average of 16.6 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 4 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 10.4 to 19.7 (median 13.6).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 4 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.