Sam Darnold
QB
Seattle SeahawksOut
This is how QBs have played against the Raiders in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Malik Willis | 15 | 27 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 16.7 |
| 2 |  LAC | Justin Herbert | 15 | 27 | 192 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 3 |  NO | Tyler Shough | 29 | 42 | 255 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 4 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 15 | 30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 5 |  NE | Drake Maye | 26 | 34 | 374 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 39.5 |
| 6 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 23 | 33 | 255 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18.3 |
| 7 |  LA | Matthew Stafford | 23 | 29 | 195 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 17.5 |
| 8 |  NYJ | Geno Smith | 20 | 32 | 290 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 18.0 |
| Average | 20.8 | 31.8 | 250.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 13.0 | 0.3 | 19.8 | ||
| Median | 21.5 | 31.0 | 240.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 17.8 | ||
| High | 29 | 42 | 374 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 39.5 | ||
| Low | 15 | 27 | 192 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Sam Darnold should do vs the RaidersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Sam Darnold has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Sam Darnold will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Sam Darnold's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Sam Darnold usually produces.
Projected is Sam Darnold's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 31 | 45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 4 | LAC | 13 | 22 | 168 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 5 | SF | 18 | 29 | 195 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 6 | DEN | 27 | 51 | 278 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 7 | KC | 20 | 28 | 257 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 8 | CHI | 17 | 34 | 188 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 17.5 |
| Darnold avg | 18.1 | 30.1 | 211.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 13.2 | |
| Raiders QB1 avg | 20.8 | 31.8 | 250.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 13.0 | 0.3 | 19.8 | |
| Difference | +2.6 | +1.6 | +39.6 | +0.8 | -0.5 | +1.9 | +2.7 | +0.3 | +6.6 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 20.8 | 34.6 | 242.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 15.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Darnold averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Sam DarnoldGood confidence · 15.9 proj ptsOut
- Sam Darnold averages 13.2 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 13.8) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Raiders have allowed 19.8 points to QB1s over 8 games (+20% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +15% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.8) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Out. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 15.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreSam Darnold vs the Raiders
Prediction for Sam Darnold
Nobody knows which slot Sam Darnold will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 15.9 points for Sam Darnold if playing as a QB1. Sam Darnold has averaged 13.2 over 7 games, and the Raiders have given up 19.8 to QB1s (+20% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Sam Darnold scored: Wk 1 0.5, Wk 3 27.7, Wk 4 13.3, Wk 5 8.3, Wk 6 11.0, Wk 7 14.0, Wk 8 17.5. Average 13.2; weighted toward recent games it is 13.8.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Raiders allowed 19.8 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is +20%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 13.8 x 1.15 = 15.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Sam Darnold is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.3 points, leaning on Sam Darnold's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 250.8 passing yards, 2.3 passing TDs and 13.0 rushing yards against the Raiders across 8 games.
- The Raiders allow 19.8 PPR points to QB1s, +20% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Drake Maye (39.5 pts, 374 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.8 vs 17.0; pass yds 250.8 vs 233.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Justin Herbert (7.9 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.8 vs 21.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.9 to 39.5 (median 17.8).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 8 of 8 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.