Kyler Murray
QB
Minnesota VikingsQ▲ Hot
This is how QBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| 3 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 16 | 27 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 4 |  WAS | Athan Kaliakmanis | 15 | 33 | 186 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 5 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 22 | 31 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 6 |  TEN | Cam Ward | 11 | 22 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6.8 |
| Average | 18.8 | 30.8 | 232.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 16.0 | 0.2 | 17.6 | ||
| Median | 16.5 | 29.0 | 210.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 16.8 | ||
| High | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 29.0 | ||
| Low | 11 | 22 | 102 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kyler Murray should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kyler Murray has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kyler Murray will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kyler Murray's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kyler Murray usually produces.
Projected is Kyler Murray's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | -0.4 |
| 3 | TB | 15 | 29 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 4 | MIA | 27 | 37 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 11.5 |
| 5 | NO | 24 | 30 | 229 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 0 | 18.3 |
| 7 | IND | 14 | 24 | 150 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 8 | DET | 17 | 29 | 210 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 19.9 |
| Murray avg | 16.7 | 25.7 | 170.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 27.8 | 0.0 | 12.3 | |
| Colts QB1 avg | 18.8 | 30.8 | 232.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 16.0 | 0.2 | 17.6 | |
| Difference | +2.2 | +5.2 | +62.3 | +0.8 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -11.8 | +0.2 | +5.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Murray averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKyler Murray vs the Colts
Prediction for Kyler Murray
Nobody knows which slot Kyler Murray will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 13.3 points for Kyler Murray if playing as a QB1. Kyler Murray has averaged 9.9 over 4 games, and the Colts have given up 17.6 to QB1s (+5% vs the league average of 16.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kyler Murray scored: Wk 1 -0.4, Wk 3 10.4, Wk 4 11.5, Wk 5 18.3. Average 9.9; weighted toward recent games it is 12.8.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Colts allowed 17.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.7, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 12.8 x 1.04 = 13.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kyler Murray is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.8 points, leaning on Kyler Murray's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 232.7 passing yards, 1.7 passing TDs and 16.0 rushing yards against the Colts across 6 games.
- The Colts allow 17.6 PPR points to QB1s, +5% versus the league average of 16.7 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Patrick Mahomes (29.0 pts, 382 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.6 vs 15.3; pass yds 232.7 vs 202.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Cam Ward (6.8 pts, 102 pass yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.6 vs 19.7; pass yds 232.7 vs 258.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 6 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.8 to 29.0 (median 16.8).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 100 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 6 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.