Joe Burrow
QB
Cincinnati Bengals▲ Hot
This is how QBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 29.8 |
| 3 |  SEA | Sam Darnold | 31 | 45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 4 |  IND | Daniel Jones | 19 | 34 | 143 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7.9 |
| 5 |  NYG | Jameis Winston | 33 | 54 | 326 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 25.7 |
| 6 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 21 | 29 | 264 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17.4 |
| 8 | PHI | Tanner McKee | 23 | 34 | 212 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Average | 23.9 | 36.0 | 258.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 22.7 | 0.1 | 20.0 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 34.0 | 264.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 24.7 | ||
| High | 33 | 54 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 14 | 25 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Joe Burrow should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Joe Burrow has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Joe Burrow will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Joe Burrow's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Joe Burrow usually produces.
Projected is Joe Burrow's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2 | HOU | 20 | 31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.2 |
| 3 | PIT | 28 | 37 | 282 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 22.6 |
| 4 | JAX | 39 | 54 | 428 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 5 | MIA | 23 | 32 | 190 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 24.6 |
| 7 | BAL | 22 | 30 | 292 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 28.9 |
| 8 | TEN | 38 | 48 | 462 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 39.5 |
| Burrow avg | 27.9 | 38.1 | 302.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 10.0 | 0.3 | 24.2 | |
| Commanders QB1 avg | 23.9 | 36.0 | 258.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 22.7 | 0.1 | 20.0 | |
| Difference | -4.0 | -2.1 | -44.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | +1.4 | +12.7 | -0.1 | -4.2 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 32.1 | 43.9 | 347.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 11.5 | 0.3 | 28.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Burrow averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Joe BurrowGood confidence · 28.9 proj pts10/10 start
- Joe Burrow averages 24.2 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 27.5) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Commanders have allowed 20.0 points to QB1s over 7 games (+22% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +15% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.8) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 28.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJoe Burrow vs the Commanders
Prediction for Joe Burrow
Nobody knows which slot Joe Burrow will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 28.9 points for Joe Burrow if playing as a QB1. Joe Burrow has averaged 24.2 over 7 games, and the Commanders have given up 20.0 to QB1s (+22% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Joe Burrow scored: Wk 1 14.2, Wk 2 16.2, Wk 3 22.6, Wk 4 23.7, Wk 5 24.6, Wk 7 28.9, Wk 8 39.5. Average 24.2; weighted toward recent games it is 25.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Commanders allowed 20.0 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is +22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 25.1 x 1.15 = 28.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Joe Burrow is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (28.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.6 points, leaning on Joe Burrow's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 29.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 258.0 passing yards, 2.1 passing TDs and 22.7 rushing yards against the Commanders across 7 games.
- The Commanders allow 20.0 PPR points to QB1s, +22% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Dak Prescott (29.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 20.0 vs 18.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Daniel Jones (7.9 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 20.0 vs 22.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.0 to 29.8 (median 24.7).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 7 games (86%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.