DeVonta Smith
WR
Philadelphia EaglesQ
- Quarterback Tanner McKee is questionable. Watch the status.
- Teammate Dontayvion Wicks (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Malik Nabers | 9 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 2 |  WAS | Stefon Diggs | 6 | 5 | 47 | 2 | 21.7 |
| 3 |  BAL | Zay Flowers | 6 | 5 | 84 | 0 | 15.4 |
| 4 |  HOU | Nico Collins | 8 | 7 | 118 | 2 | 30.8 |
| 5 |  TB | Emeka Egbuka | 9 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 6 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 13 | 6 | 104 | 1 | 22.4 |
| Average | 8.5 | 5.8 | 76.7 | 0.8 | 20.1 | ||
| Median | 8.5 | 6.0 | 76.5 | 0.5 | 19.4 | ||
| High | 13 | 7 | 118 | 2 | 30.8 | ||
| Low | 6 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 12.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How DeVonta Smith should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game DeVonta Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot DeVonta Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus DeVonta Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than DeVonta Smith usually produces.
Projected is DeVonta Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 6 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 2 | TEN | 13 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 3 | CHI | 8 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 6 | CAR | 14 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 20.5 |
| Smith avg | 10.3 | 6.5 | 77.5 | 0.5 | 17.3 | |
| Cowboys WR1 avg | 8.5 | 5.8 | 76.7 | 0.8 | 20.1 | |
| Difference | -1.8 | -0.7 | -0.8 | +0.3 | +2.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDeVonta Smith vs the Cowboys
Prediction for DeVonta Smith
Nobody knows which slot DeVonta Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 17.4 points for DeVonta Smith if playing as a WR1. DeVonta Smith has averaged 17.3 over 4 games, and the Cowboys have given up 20.1 to WR1s (+15% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. DeVonta Smith scored: Wk 1 8.3, Wk 2 27.7, Wk 3 12.5, Wk 6 20.5. Average 17.3; weighted toward recent games it is 15.8.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Cowboys allowed 20.1 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is +15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 15.8 x 1.10 = 17.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely DeVonta Smith is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.2 points, leaning on DeVonta Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.8 receptions, 76.7 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving TDs against the Cowboys across 6 games.
- The Cowboys allow 20.1 PPR points to WR1s, +15% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Nico Collins (30.8 pts, 118 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 20.1 vs 17.9; yds 76.7 vs 68.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.9 to 30.8 (median 19.4).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 6 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.