Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Seattle Seahawks▲ Hot
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Jalen Coker | 9 | 8 | 138 | 2 | 33.8 |
| 2 |  MIN | Justin Jefferson | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 |  PHI | DeVonta Smith | 8 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Isaiah Williams | 3 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 |
| 5 |  GB | Christian Watson | 8 | 6 | 143 | 2 | 32.3 |
| 6 |  ATL | Jahan Dotson | 5 | 3 | 87 | 1 | 17.7 |
| 7 |  NE | A.J. Brown | 6 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 6.4 | 4.4 | 87.0 | 0.9 | 18.3 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 3.0 | 73.0 | 1.0 | 15.3 | ||
| High | 9 | 8 | 143 | 2 | 33.8 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 | LAC | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SF | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 16 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 7 | KC | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 8 | CHI | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.1 | 8.0 | 123.1 | 1.1 | 27.5 | |
| Bears WR1 avg | 6.4 | 4.4 | 87.0 | 0.9 | 18.3 | |
| Difference | -4.7 | -3.6 | -36.1 | -0.3 | -9.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the Bears
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 26.9 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 28.0 over 7 games, and the Bears have given up 18.3 to WR1s (+5% vs the league average of 17.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5, Wk 3 35.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 22.8, Wk 6 25.4, Wk 7 31.3. Average 28.0; weighted toward recent games it is 26.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bears allowed 18.3 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.3, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 26.0 x 1.04 = 26.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (26.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.8 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 27.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.4 receptions, 87.0 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the Bears across 7 games.
- The Bears allow 18.3 PPR points to WR1s, +5% versus the league average of 17.3 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jalen Coker (33.8 pts, 8 rec, 138 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.3 vs 15.7; rec 4.4 vs 3.8; yds 87.0 vs 78.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Christian Watson (32.3 pts, 143 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.3 vs 15.9; yds 87.0 vs 77.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.8 to 33.8 (median 15.3).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games (57%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.