Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Seattle Seahawks▲ Hot
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Cardinals in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Cardinals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LAC | Ladd McConkey | 7 | 5 | 82 | 1 | 19.2 |
| 2 | SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 |  SF | Mike Evans | 6 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 12.4 |
| 4 |  NYG | Malik Nabers | 7 | 6 | 112 | 1 | 23.2 |
| 5 |  DET | Jameson Williams | 4 | 2 | 47 | 2 | 18.7 |
| 6 |  LA | Puka Nacua | 7 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 7 |  DEN | Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 8 |  DAL | Ryan Flournoy | 4 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 13.1 |
| Average | 6.6 | 4.8 | 74.5 | 1.1 | 19.0 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 4.5 | 64.0 | 1.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 8.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the CardinalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cardinals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cardinals opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cardinals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cardinals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 | LAC | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SF | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 16 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 7 | KC | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 8 | CHI | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.1 | 8.0 | 123.1 | 1.1 | 27.5 | |
| Cardinals WR1 avg | 6.6 | 4.8 | 74.5 | 1.1 | 19.0 | |
| Difference | -4.5 | -3.3 | -48.6 | +0.0 | -8.5 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 132.8 | 1.2 | 27.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaGood confidence · 26.5 proj pts10/10 start
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 27.5 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 26.5) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Cardinals have allowed 19.0 points to WR1s over 8 games (+11% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +8% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.2) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -2%: Vegas total 39.5, implied 24.0 points for SEA (league avg 22.6); Favored by 8.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.6 mm, 12% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
- QB change: Sam Darnold is now throwing (7.0 yds/att vs 7.2 earlier), x0.98.
- Flag: Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Projection: 26.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the Cardinals
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cardinals.
I predict about 27.4 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 27.5 over 8 games, and the Cardinals have given up 19.0 to WR1s (+11% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5, Wk 3 35.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 22.8, Wk 6 25.4, Wk 7 31.3, Wk 8 23.8. Average 27.5; weighted toward recent games it is 25.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +11%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +8% adjustment (x1.08).
4. Result. 25.4 x 1.08 = 27.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (27.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.0 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 27.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.8 receptions, 74.5 receiving yards and 1.1 receiving TDs against the Cardinals across 8 games.
- The Cardinals allow 19.0 PPR points to WR1s, +11% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (42.5 pts, 9 rec, 155 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.0 vs 15.6; rec 4.8 vs 4.1; yds 74.5 vs 63.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Malik Nabers (112 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 74.5 vs 69.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.8 to 42.5 (median 16.4).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 8 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.