Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Seattle Seahawks▲ Hot
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Pat Bryant | 6 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 8.2 |
| 2 |  IND | Josh Downs | 9 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 3 |  MIA | Malik Washington | 10 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 4 |  LV | Tre Tucker | 8 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 6 |  LAC | Quentin Johnston | 3 | 1 | 57 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Average | 7.2 | 4.2 | 54.2 | 0.0 | 9.7 | ||
| Median | 8.0 | 4.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 8.4 | ||
| High | 10 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 14.2 | ||
| Low | 3 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 6.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 | LAC | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SF | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 16 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 7 | KC | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 8 | CHI | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.1 | 8.0 | 123.1 | 1.1 | 27.5 | |
| Chiefs WR1 avg | 7.2 | 4.2 | 54.2 | 0.0 | 9.7 | |
| Difference | -3.9 | -3.8 | -68.9 | -1.1 | -17.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 17.9 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 27.5 over 6 games, and the Chiefs have given up 9.7 to WR1s (-44% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5, Wk 3 35.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 22.8, Wk 6 25.4. Average 27.5; weighted toward recent games it is 24.8.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Chiefs allowed 9.7 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -44%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -28% adjustment (x0.72).
4. Result. 24.8 x 0.72 = 17.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.4 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.2 receptions, 54.2 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Chiefs across 5 games.
- The Chiefs allow 9.7 PPR points to WR1s, -44% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Josh Downs (7 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 4.2 vs 3.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Quentin Johnston (1 rec) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 4.2 vs 5.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.7 to 14.2 (median 8.4).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 5 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.