Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Seattle Seahawks▲ Hot
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Chargers in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Chargers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ARI | Kendrick Bourne | 8 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 |  LV | Tre Tucker | 7 | 5 | 119 | 1 | 22.9 |
| 3 |  BUF | DJ Moore | 10 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 12.7 |
| Average | 8.3 | 6.3 | 87.0 | 0.3 | 17.0 | ||
| Median | 8.0 | 6.0 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 15.5 | ||
| High | 10 | 8 | 119 | 1 | 22.9 | ||
| Low | 7 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 12.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the ChargersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chargers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chargers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chargers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chargers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 | LAC | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SF | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 16 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 7 | KC | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 8 | CHI | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.1 | 8.0 | 123.1 | 1.1 | 27.5 | |
| Chargers WR1 avg | 8.3 | 6.3 | 87.0 | 0.3 | 17.0 | |
| Difference | -2.8 | -1.7 | -36.1 | -0.8 | -10.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the Chargers
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chargers.
I predict about 29.6 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 34.7 over 3 games, and the Chargers have given up 17.0 to WR1s (-1% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5, Wk 3 35.4. Average 34.7; weighted toward recent games it is 29.6.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Chargers allowed 17.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 29.6 x 1.00 = 29.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (29.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.0 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 30.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 6.3 receptions, 87.0 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Chargers across 3 games.
- The Chargers allow 17.0 PPR points to WR1s, -1% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Tre Tucker (22.9 pts, 119 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.0 vs 14.1; yds 87.0 vs 71.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.7 to 22.9 (median 15.5).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 60 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.