Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Seattle Seahawks▲ Hot
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the 49ers in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against 49ers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Puka Nacua | 9 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 12.4 |
| 2 |  MIA | Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 77 | 1 | 14.7 |
| 3 |  ARI | Michael Wilson | 17 | 11 | 89 | 1 | 25.9 |
| 4 |  DEN | Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 14.5 |
| 5 | SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 |  WAS | Stefon Diggs | 7 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 16.4 |
| 7 |  ATL | Drake London | 10 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 19.6 |
| Average | 8.3 | 5.7 | 69.6 | 0.9 | 18.0 | ||
| Median | 8.0 | 5.0 | 74.0 | 1.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 17 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 25.9 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 12.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the 49ersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 | LAC | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SF | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 16 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 7 | KC | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 8 | CHI | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.1 | 8.0 | 123.1 | 1.1 | 27.5 | |
| 49ers WR1 avg | 8.3 | 5.7 | 69.6 | 0.9 | 18.0 | |
| Difference | -2.8 | -2.3 | -53.6 | -0.3 | -9.5 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 127.7 | 1.2 | 26.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaGood confidence · 26.4 proj pts10/10 start
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 27.5 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 26.5) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The 49ers have allowed 18.0 points to WR1s over 7 games (+5% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.2) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 26.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the 49ers
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 26.4 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 27.5 over 8 games, and the 49ers have given up 18.0 to WR1s (+5% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5, Wk 3 35.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 22.8, Wk 6 25.4, Wk 7 31.3, Wk 8 23.8. Average 27.5; weighted toward recent games it is 25.4.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the 49ers allowed 18.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 25.4 x 1.04 = 26.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (26.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.5 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 26.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.7 receptions, 69.6 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the 49ers across 7 games.
- The 49ers allow 18.0 PPR points to WR1s, +5% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Michael Wilson (11 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 5.7 vs 4.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Ryan Miller (1 rec) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 5.7 vs 6.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.4 to 25.9 (median 16.4).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 7 games (86%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.