Chase Brown
RB
Cincinnati Bengals
This is how RBs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2 |  CAR | Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 53 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 3 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 4 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 |  NO | Alvin Kamara | 7 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 22.8 |
| 5 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 24 | 102 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 6 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 16 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 7 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 8 |  TB | Bucky Irving | 27 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 |
| Average | 13.4 | 61.0 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 23.1 | 0.3 | 17.3 | ||
| Median | 11.0 | 45.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | ||
| High | 27 | 170 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Chase Brown should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chase Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chase Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chase Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chase Brown usually produces.
Projected is Chase Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 16 | 56 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 18.8 |
| 2 | HOU | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 3 | PIT | 13 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 4 | JAX | 9 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 71 | 0 | 19.1 |
| 5 | MIA | 13 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 7 | BAL | 11 | 39 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 8 | TEN | 12 | 55 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 16.1 |
| Brown avg | 13.4 | 48.6 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | |
| Falcons RB1 avg | 13.4 | 61.0 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 23.1 | 0.3 | 17.3 | |
| Difference | -0.1 | +12.4 | +0.6 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -3.9 | +0.3 | +4.3 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 14.2 | 51.2 | 0.2 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 28.5 | 0.0 | 14.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Chase BrownGood confidence · 16.2 proj pts7/10 start
- Chase Brown averages 13.0 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 12.8) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Falcons have allowed 17.3 points to RB1s over 8 games (+7% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.6) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +12%: Vegas total 52.5, implied 27.8 points for CIN (league avg 22.6); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Divine Deablo (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Divine Deablo (LB) is questionable, which helps the running game.
- Projection: 16.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChase Brown vs the Falcons
Prediction for Chase Brown
Nobody knows which slot Chase Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 14.4 points for Chase Brown if playing as a RB1. Chase Brown has averaged 13.0 over 7 games, and the Falcons have given up 17.3 to RB1s (+7% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chase Brown scored: Wk 1 18.8, Wk 2 11.2, Wk 3 8.9, Wk 4 19.1, Wk 5 7.0, Wk 7 9.8, Wk 8 16.1. Average 13.0; weighted toward recent games it is 13.6.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Falcons allowed 17.3 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 13.6 x 1.05 = 14.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chase Brown is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.7 points, leaning on Chase Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.4 carries, 61.0 rushing yards and 3.1 receptions against the Falcons across 8 games.
- The Falcons allow 17.3 PPR points to RB1s, +7% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, MarShawn Lloyd (3.8 pts, 4 car, 11 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.3 vs 19.2; car 13.4 vs 14.7; rush yds 61.0 vs 68.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Derrick Henry (24 car, 102 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 13.4 vs 11.9; rush yds 61.0 vs 55.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.8 to 23.0 (median 21.0).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 8 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.