KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
Los Angeles Chargers
This is how WRs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Courtland Sutton | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 3 |  MIA | Chris Bell | 7 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 4 |  LV | Cody White | 4 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 6 | LAC | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 9 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 7 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 8 | DEN | Courtland Sutton | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 9.3 |
| Average | 4.9 | 3.1 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | ||
| High | 9 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 10.7 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How KeAndre Lambert-Smith should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game KeAndre Lambert-Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot KeAndre Lambert-Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus KeAndre Lambert-Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than KeAndre Lambert-Smith usually produces.
Projected is KeAndre Lambert-Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | KC | 9 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Lambert-Smith avg | 9.0 | 5.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 6.2 | |
| Chiefs WR2 avg | 4.9 | 3.1 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | |
| Difference | -4.1 | -1.9 | +8.0 | +0.0 | +0.9 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 27.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lambert-Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · KeAndre Lambert-SmithMedium confidence · 3.1 proj pts1/10 start
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith averages 6.2 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 6.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Chiefs have allowed 7.1 points to WR2s over 7 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKeAndre Lambert-Smith vs the Chiefs
Prediction for KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Nobody knows which slot KeAndre Lambert-Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 3.1 points for KeAndre Lambert-Smith if playing as a WR2. KeAndre Lambert-Smith has averaged 6.2 over 1 game, and the Chiefs have given up 7.1 to WR2s (-18% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. KeAndre Lambert-Smith scored: Wk 6 6.2. Average 6.2; weighted toward recent games it is 3.6.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Chiefs allowed 7.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 3.6 x 0.87 = 3.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely KeAndre Lambert-Smith is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.9 points, leaning on KeAndre Lambert-Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.1 receptions, 40.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Chiefs across 7 games.
- The Chiefs allow 7.1 PPR points to WR2s, -18% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.1 to 10.7 (median 7.6).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.