Jaxson Dart
QB
New York GiantsIR
- Top target Malik Nabers is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| 3 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 16 | 27 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 4 |  WAS | Athan Kaliakmanis | 15 | 33 | 186 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 5 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 22 | 31 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 6 |  TEN | Cam Ward | 11 | 22 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 7 |  MIN | Kyler Murray | 14 | 24 | 150 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 8 |  JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 10 | 14 | 210 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 19.4 |
| Average | 17.1 | 27.9 | 219.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 18.1 | 0.1 | 17.3 | ||
| Median | 15.5 | 26.0 | 198.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 16.6 | ||
| High | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 29.0 | ||
| Low | 10 | 14 | 102 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxson Dart should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxson Dart has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxson Dart will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxson Dart's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxson Dart usually produces.
Projected is Jaxson Dart's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 23 | 29 | 230 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 26.6 |
| 2 | LA | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Dart avg | 13.0 | 17.0 | 125.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 13.7 | |
| Colts QB1 avg | 17.1 | 27.9 | 219.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 18.1 | 0.1 | 17.3 | |
| Difference | +4.1 | +10.9 | +94.5 | +0.3 | +0.3 | -2.3 | -8.9 | +0.1 | +3.6 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 13.5 | 17.7 | 129.9 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 28.1 | 0.0 | 16.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Dart averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaxson DartMedium confidence · 16.8 proj ptsOut
- Jaxson Dart averages 13.7 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Colts have allowed 17.3 points to QB1s over 8 games (+5% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (20.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: IR. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 16.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxson Dart vs the Colts
Prediction for Jaxson Dart
Nobody knows which slot Jaxson Dart will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 16.8 points for Jaxson Dart if playing as a QB1. Jaxson Dart has averaged 13.7 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 17.3 to QB1s (+5% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxson Dart scored: Wk 1 26.6, Wk 2 0.8. Average 13.7; weighted toward recent games it is 16.2.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Colts allowed 17.3 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 16.2 x 1.04 = 16.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxson Dart is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.1 points, leaning on Jaxson Dart's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 219.5 passing yards, 1.8 passing TDs and 18.1 rushing yards against the Colts across 8 games.
- The Colts allow 17.3 PPR points to QB1s, +5% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Patrick Mahomes (29.0 pts, 382 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.3 vs 15.7; pass yds 219.5 vs 196.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Cam Ward (6.8 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.3 vs 18.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.8 to 29.0 (median 16.6).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 100 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 8 of 8 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.