Crunching this week's bets
Running the numbers on every player, defense, line and forecast. This can take a few seconds.
For information and entertainment only, not betting advice. Chances come from a statistical model built on this season's and last season's box scores; they are estimates, not locks. Must be 21+ where legal. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Indianapolis Colts
DAL| Per game | This yr | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 4.5 | 1.0 |
| Receptions | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Rec yards | 10.0 | 16.0 |
| Air yards | 49.0 | 16.0 |
| Total TDs | 0.0 | 0.0 |
How good a betting target Mallory is this week, 0–100, from real stats. 50 is a typical TE. Provisional: fewer than 4 games behind it.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
Not enough games to measure yet.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Not enough games to measure yet.
Provisional: 3 games behind it, so the score is pulled toward 50.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
Not enough games to measure yet.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Provisional: 3 games behind it, so the score is pulled toward 50.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
Not enough games to measure yet.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Not enough games to measure yet.
Provisional: 3 games behind it, so the score is pulled toward 50.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
Not enough games to measure yet.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Provisional: 3 games behind it, so the score is pulled toward 50.
Tap a bet type to see the stats behind each part. Parts are in standard deviations from a typical player at the position. A ranking, not a chance to hit or a price edge. How it works ›
How often Mallory has cleared each line, and our chance this week. Highlighted: the hardest line they reliably clear.
| Line | This yr | 2025 | Reliably | This wk | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 3% | 18% | +463 |
| 2+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | <1% | 2% | ≥+5000 |
| 3+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | <1% | <1% | ≥+5000 |
| Line | This yr | 2025 | Reliably | This wk | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 2% | 18% | +463 |
| 2+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | <1% | 2% | ≥+5000 |
| 3+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | <1% | <1% | ≥+5000 |
| Line | This yr | 2025 | Reliably | This wk | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 11% | 43% | +132 |
| 4+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 6% | 22% | +351 |
| 5+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 4% | 10% | +941 |
| 6+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 2% | 4% | +2696 |
| 7+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | <1% | 1% | ≥+5000 |
| Line | This yr | 2025 | Reliably | This wk | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 5% | 10% | +867 |
| 50+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 3% | 4% | +2305 |
| 60+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | 2% | 2% | ≥+5000 |
| 75+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | <1% | <1% | ≥+5000 |
| 100+ | 0/2 | 0/1 | <1% | <1% | ≥+5000 |
“Likely” is the middle 80% of outcomes our model expects this week. “Fair” shows a real sportsbook price when the odds feed has one, otherwise the price our chance is worth.
Share of the offense each week. Role changes usually show up before yardage and catch totals do.
Bars: each game this season. Dotted line: this season's average. Dashed: 2025 average.
Receptions per game. Grey means fewer than 4 games on one side: noise, not signal.
This season. Volatility is for receptions.
Hit records count every game with a real role this season and last season (same position). “Reliably” is a cautious lower estimate that pools both seasons, with last season worth at most 8 games.
This week's chances come from the same model as the rest of the Bets pages: the player's rate per carry or target, blended with last season and a typical player at that workload, adjusted for the defense, the Vegas game setup, weather, the quarterback and injuries.