Zay Flowers

WR Baltimore Ravens · Wk 3 @ DAL DAL

Chance of 1+ receiving TD

43%

Rank

#14

of 158

Why Flowers ranks #14

Zay Flowers has reached 1+ receiving TD in 1 of 1 game this season.
Flowers has 1 receiving TDs in 1 game (1.00 per game) on 6.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (0.31 per game), giving 0.48 per game.
The Cowboys have allowed 1.00 receiving TDs per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.90 (+11%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.04 adjustment.
Game environment (receiving TDs x1.13): Vegas total 52.5, implied 27.8 points for BAL (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected receiving TDs this week: 0.56. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 43%.
Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.56, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD
1	IND	6	5	150	1
Average		6.0	5.0	150.0	1.0

Totals are for every WR the Cowboys faced in each game, not just one player.