QBs vs Denver Broncos
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 |
| Average | 15.0 | 27.0 | 184.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 23.0 | 1.0 | 21.7 | ||
| Median | 15.0 | 27.0 | 184.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 23.0 | 1.0 | 21.7 | ||
| High | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 | ||
| Low | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Trevor Lawrence
Nobody knows which slot Trevor Lawrence will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 23.3 points for Trevor Lawrence if playing as a QB1. Trevor Lawrence has averaged 26.1 over 1 game, and the Broncos have given up 21.7 to QB1s (+24% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Trevor Lawrence scored: Wk 1 26.1. Average 26.1; weighted toward recent games it is 22.0.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Broncos allowed 21.7 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is +24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 22.0 x 1.06 = 23.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Trevor Lawrence is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (23.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 14.0 points, leaning on Trevor Lawrence's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 23.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 184.0 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 23.0 rushing yards against the Broncos across 1 game.
- The Broncos allow 21.7 PPR points to QB1s, +24% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Trevor Lawrence averages 16.1 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 15.0) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Broncos have allowed 13.9 points to QB1s over 2 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 16.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Trevor Lawrence's stats vs the Broncos
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Trevor Lawrence has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Trevor Lawrence will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Trevor Lawrence's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Trevor Lawrence usually produces.
Projected is Trevor Lawrence's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 18 | 23 | 245 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 26.1 |
| 2 | DEN | 17 | 29 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Lawrence avg | 17.5 | 26.0 | 217.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 16.1 | |
| Broncos QB1 avg | 15.0 | 27.0 | 184.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 23.0 | 1.0 | 21.7 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | +1.0 | -33.0 | +0.0 | +0.5 | +5.0 | +18.5 | +1.0 | +5.5 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 18.6 | 27.6 | 230.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 23.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lawrence averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.