QBs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Deshaun Watson | 16 | 22 | 205 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 2 |  DEN | Bo Nix | 22 | 31 | 288 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14.1 |
| Average | 19.0 | 26.5 | 246.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 14.1 | ||
| Median | 19.0 | 26.5 | 246.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 14.1 | ||
| High | 22 | 31 | 288 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14.1 | ||
| Low | 16 | 22 | 205 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Cam Ward
Nobody knows which slot Cam Ward will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 12.7 points for Cam Ward if playing as a QB1. Cam Ward has averaged 15.9 over 2 games, and the Jaguars have given up 14.1 to QB1s (-17% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Cam Ward scored: Wk 1 11.7, Wk 2 20.0. Average 15.9; weighted toward recent games it is 13.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Jaguars allowed 14.1 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is -17%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 13.7 x 0.93 = 12.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Cam Ward is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.6 points, leaning on Cam Ward's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 246.5 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 22.0 rushing yards against the Jaguars across 2 games.
- The Jaguars allow 14.1 PPR points to QB1s, -17% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.0 to 14.1 (median 14.1).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Cam Ward averages 15.9 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 16.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Jaguars have allowed 14.1 points to QB1s over 2 games (-17% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.0) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 12.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Cam Ward's stats vs the Jaguars
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Cam Ward has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Cam Ward will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Cam Ward's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Cam Ward usually produces.
Projected is Cam Ward's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 19 | 32 | 140 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 2 | PHI | 13 | 20 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 20.0 |
| Ward avg | 16.0 | 26.0 | 161.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 15.9 | |
| Jaguars QB1 avg | 19.0 | 26.5 | 246.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 14.1 | |
| Difference | +3.0 | +0.5 | +85.0 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +8.0 | -1.0 | -1.8 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 14.9 | 24.3 | 150.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 13.1 | 0.9 | 12.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ward averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.