WRs vs Arizona Cardinals
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Cardinals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LAC | Ladd McConkey | 7 | 5 | 82 | 1 | 19.2 |
| 2 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| Average | 9.0 | 7.0 | 118.5 | 2.0 | 30.9 | ||
| Median | 9.0 | 7.0 | 118.5 | 2.0 | 30.9 | ||
| High | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 | ||
| Low | 7 | 5 | 82 | 1 | 19.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Deebo Samuel Sr.
Nobody knows which slot Deebo Samuel Sr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cardinals.
I predict about 10.4 points for Deebo Samuel Sr. if playing as a WR2. Deebo Samuel Sr. has averaged 12.3 over 2 games, and the Cardinals have given up 6.0 to WR2s (-28% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Deebo Samuel Sr. scored: Wk 1 18.0, Wk 2 6.5. Average 12.3; weighted toward recent games it is 11.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Cardinals allowed 6.0 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -28%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 11.7 x 0.89 = 10.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Deebo Samuel Sr. is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.2 points, leaning on Deebo Samuel Sr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR1s have averaged 7.0 receptions, 118.5 receiving yards and 2.0 receiving TDs against the Cardinals across 2 games.
- The Cardinals allow 30.9 PPR points to WR1s, +82% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 19.2 to 42.5 (median 30.9).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 80 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Deebo Samuel Sr. usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Deebo Samuel Sr. averages 12.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 11.6) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Cardinals have allowed 6.0 points to WR2s over 2 games (-28% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +9%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 28.0 points for SF (league avg 22.5); Favored by 8.5: leaning run-heavy late; Wind about 12 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+3%): Opposing starter Will Johnson (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Max Melton (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 11.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Deebo Samuel Sr.'s stats vs the Cardinals
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cardinals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Deebo Samuel Sr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cardinals opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Deebo Samuel Sr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cardinals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Deebo Samuel Sr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Deebo Samuel Sr. usually produces.
Projected is Deebo Samuel Sr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cardinals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 2 | MIA | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Sr. avg | 5.5 | 4.5 | 39.5 | 0.5 | 12.3 | |
| Cardinals WR1 avg | 9.0 | 7.0 | 118.5 | 2.0 | 30.9 | |
| Difference | +3.5 | +2.5 | +79.0 | +1.5 | +18.6 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 51.4 | 0.7 | 15.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Sr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.