WRs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Zay Flowers | WR1 | 6 | 5 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 |
| Chris Moore | WR2 | 2 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 6.3 | ||
| LaJohntay Wester | WR3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 | ||
| 2 |  KC | Xavier Worthy | WR1 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 13.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR2 | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 | 12.6 | ||
| Rashee Rice | WR3 | 6 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 | ||
| Average | 4.5 | 3.5 | 68.7 | 0.3 | 12.4 | |||
| Median | 5.0 | 4.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 12.4 | |||
| High | 7 | 5 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 | |||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Malik Nabers
Nobody knows which slot Malik Nabers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 14.7 points for Malik Nabers if playing as a WR1. Malik Nabers has averaged 12.9 over 1 game, and the Colts have given up 19.8 to WR1s (+16% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Malik Nabers scored: Wk 1 12.9. Average 12.9; weighted toward recent games it is 13.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Colts allowed 19.8 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 13.8 x 1.07 = 14.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Malik Nabers is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.8 points, leaning on Malik Nabers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.5 receptions, 68.7 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs per player-game against the Colts across 2 games.
- The Colts allow 37.1 PPR points to the position per game, +24% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Zay Flowers (26.0 pts, 150 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.4 vs 9.6; yds 68.7 vs 52.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, LaJohntay Wester (3.5 pts, 15 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.4 vs 14.1; yds 68.7 vs 79.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.5 to 26.0 (median 12.4).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Malik Nabers usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Malik Nabers averages 12.9 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 12.9) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Colts have allowed 19.8 points to WR1s over 2 games (+16% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 14.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Malik Nabers's stats vs the Colts
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Malik Nabers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Malik Nabers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Malik Nabers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Malik Nabers usually produces.
Projected is Malik Nabers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 9 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| Nabers avg | 9.0 | 6.0 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 12.9 | |
| Colts Top 3 avg | 4.5 | 3.5 | 68.7 | 0.3 | 12.4 | |
| Difference | -4.5 | -2.5 | -0.3 | +0.3 | -0.5 | |
| Projected | 9.6 | 6.4 | 73.6 | 0.0 | 14.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Nabers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.