Patrick Mahomes
QB
Kansas City Chiefs▼ Cold
This is how QBs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 |
| 2 |  JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 17 | 29 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 3 |  LA | Matthew Stafford | 30 | 55 | 390 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 20.9 |
| 4 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 19 | 30 | 218 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 19.6 |
| 5 |  LAC | Justin Herbert | 14 | 24 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 10.2 |
| 6 |  SEA | Sam Darnold | 27 | 51 | 278 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 7 |  ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 27 | 48 | 272 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 16.5 |
| Average | 21.3 | 37.7 | 236.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 22.9 | 0.1 | 15.2 | ||
| Median | 19.0 | 30.0 | 218.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 16.5 | ||
| High | 30 | 55 | 390 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 1 | 21.7 | ||
| Low | 14 | 24 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Patrick Mahomes should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Patrick Mahomes has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Patrick Mahomes will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Patrick Mahomes's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Patrick Mahomes usually produces.
Projected is Patrick Mahomes's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 |
| 2 | IND | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| 3 | MIA | 20 | 24 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15.9 |
| 4 | LV | 15 | 30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 6 | LAC | 23 | 30 | 272 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 7 | SEA | 19 | 33 | 165 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6.0 |
| 8 | DEN | 30 | 41 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 25.4 |
| Mahomes avg | 22.0 | 33.1 | 256.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 0.1 | 17.9 | |
| Broncos QB1 avg | 21.3 | 37.7 | 236.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 22.9 | 0.1 | 15.2 | |
| Difference | -0.7 | +4.6 | -20.4 | -0.6 | +0.4 | +2.1 | +11.9 | +0.0 | -2.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mahomes averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scorePatrick Mahomes vs the Broncos
Prediction for Patrick Mahomes
Nobody knows which slot Patrick Mahomes will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 14.8 points for Patrick Mahomes if playing as a QB1. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 16.7 over 6 games, and the Broncos have given up 15.2 to QB1s (-9% vs the league average of 16.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Patrick Mahomes scored: Wk 1 21.7, Wk 2 29.0, Wk 3 15.9, Wk 4 17.0, Wk 6 10.5, Wk 7 6.0. Average 16.7; weighted toward recent games it is 15.8.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Broncos allowed 15.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.6, so that is -9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -6% adjustment (x0.94).
4. Result. 15.8 x 0.94 = 14.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Patrick Mahomes is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.1 points, leaning on Patrick Mahomes's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 236.0 passing yards, 1.1 passing TDs and 22.9 rushing yards against the Broncos across 7 games.
- The Broncos allow 15.2 PPR points to QB1s, -9% versus the league average of 16.6 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Matthew Stafford (390 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pass yds 236.0 vs 210.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Trevor Lawrence (6.2 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.2 vs 16.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.2 to 21.7 (median 16.5).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 7 games (71%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.