Tommy DeVito
QB
New England Patriots
- Top target Hunter Henry is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Packers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Carson Wentz | 12 | 19 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Geno Smith | 27 | 41 | 247 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 15.6 |
| 3 |  ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 18 | 25 | 256 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 4 |  TB | Jalon Daniels | 19 | 27 | 148 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 11.4 |
| 5 |  CHI | Tyson Bagent | 12 | 21 | 87 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 6 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 34 | 54 | 258 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 7 |  DET | Jared Goff | 22 | 32 | 303 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 8 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 23 | 41 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.4 |
| Average | 20.9 | 32.5 | 205.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 12.6 | ||
| Median | 20.5 | 29.5 | 228.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 12.7 | ||
| High | 34 | 54 | 303 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 19.2 | ||
| Low | 12 | 19 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tommy DeVito should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tommy DeVito has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tommy DeVito will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tommy DeVito's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tommy DeVito usually produces.
Projected is Tommy DeVito's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | JAX | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.4 |
| DeVito avg | 3.0 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | |
| Packers QB1 avg | 20.9 | 32.5 | 205.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 12.6 | |
| Difference | +17.9 | +27.5 | +175.1 | +1.3 | +1.0 | +2.4 | +9.5 | +0.0 | +11.2 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 24.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what DeVito averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Tommy DeVitoLow confidence · 1.2 proj pts1/10 start
- Tommy DeVito averages 1.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 1.4) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Packers have allowed 12.6 points to QB1s over 8 games (-23% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -17% adjustment.
- Game environment +1%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 23.8 points for NE (league avg 22.6); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (50F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Keisean Nixon (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Zaire Franklin (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 1.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreTommy DeVito vs the Packers
Prediction for Tommy DeVito
Nobody knows which slot Tommy DeVito will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 1.2 points for Tommy DeVito if playing as a QB1. Tommy DeVito has averaged 1.4 over 1 game, and the Packers have given up 12.6 to QB1s (-23% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tommy DeVito scored: Wk 3 1.4. Average 1.4; weighted toward recent games it is 1.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Packers allowed 12.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is -23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 1.4 x 0.83 = 1.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tommy DeVito is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.7 points, leaning on Tommy DeVito's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 1.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 205.1 passing yards, 1.3 passing TDs and 11.5 rushing yards against the Packers across 8 games.
- The Packers allow 12.6 PPR points to QB1s, -23% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Tyson Bagent (1.2 pts, 87 pass yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.6 vs 14.2; pass yds 205.1 vs 222.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.2 to 19.2 (median 12.7).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 80 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 7 of 8 games (88%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.