Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Seattle Seahawks▲ Hot
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Rashee Rice | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 9.9 |
| 2 |  JAX | Parker Washington | 12 | 7 | 98 | 0 | 16.8 |
| 3 |  LA | Davante Adams | 13 | 7 | 137 | 0 | 20.7 |
| 4 |  SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 5 |  LAC | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Average | 7.2 | 4.6 | 60.4 | 0.4 | 13.9 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 5.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 16.8 | ||
| High | 13 | 7 | 137 | 1 | 20.7 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 4.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 | LAC | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SF | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 16 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 7 | KC | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 8 | CHI | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.1 | 8.0 | 123.1 | 1.1 | 27.5 | |
| Broncos WR1 avg | 7.2 | 4.6 | 60.4 | 0.4 | 13.9 | |
| Difference | -3.9 | -3.4 | -62.7 | -0.7 | -13.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the Broncos
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 21.6 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 27.9 over 5 games, and the Broncos have given up 13.9 to WR1s (-21% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5, Wk 3 35.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 22.8. Average 27.9; weighted toward recent games it is 24.7.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Broncos allowed 13.9 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -21%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 24.7 x 0.87 = 21.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.8 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 22.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.6 receptions, 60.4 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Broncos across 5 games.
- The Broncos allow 13.9 PPR points to WR1s, -21% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Davante Adams (20.7 pts, 7 rec, 137 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.9 vs 12.2; rec 4.6 vs 4.0; yds 60.4 vs 41.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4.2 pts, 2 rec, 22 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.9 vs 16.4; rec 4.6 vs 5.3; yds 60.4 vs 70.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.2 to 20.7 (median 16.8).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 5 games (40%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.