Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Seattle Seahawks▲ Hot
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Raiders in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Raiders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Caleb Douglas | 7 | 5 | 94 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 2 |  LAC | Ladd McConkey | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6.5 |
| 3 |  NO | Chris Olave | 13 | 9 | 107 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 4 |  KC | Tyquan Thornton | 8 | 5 | 111 | 2 | 28.1 |
| 5 |  NE | DeMario Douglas | 5 | 4 | 65 | 2 | 22.5 |
| 6 |  BUF | Keon Coleman | 6 | 4 | 59 | 1 | 15.9 |
| 7 |  LA | Puka Nacua | 10 | 8 | 68 | 1 | 21.8 |
| 8 |  NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 9 | 7 | 142 | 1 | 27.2 |
| Average | 7.6 | 5.6 | 85.1 | 0.9 | 19.5 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.0 | 81.0 | 1.0 | 20.8 | ||
| High | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 28.1 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the RaidersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 | LAC | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SF | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 16 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 7 | KC | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 8 | CHI | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.1 | 8.0 | 123.1 | 1.1 | 27.5 | |
| Raiders WR1 avg | 7.6 | 5.6 | 85.1 | 0.9 | 19.5 | |
| Difference | -3.5 | -2.4 | -38.0 | -0.3 | -8.0 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 135.5 | 1.2 | 28.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaGood confidence · 28.0 proj pts10/10 start
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 27.5 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 26.5) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Raiders have allowed 19.5 points to WR1s over 8 games (+14% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +10% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.2) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 28.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the Raiders
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 28.0 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 27.5 over 8 games, and the Raiders have given up 19.5 to WR1s (+14% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5, Wk 3 35.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 22.8, Wk 6 25.4, Wk 7 31.3, Wk 8 23.8. Average 27.5; weighted toward recent games it is 25.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Raiders allowed 19.5 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 25.4 x 1.10 = 28.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (28.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.2 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 28.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.6 receptions, 85.1 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the Raiders across 8 games.
- The Raiders allow 19.5 PPR points to WR1s, +14% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Ladd McConkey (6.5 pts, 35 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.5 vs 21.4; yds 85.1 vs 92.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Adonai Mitchell (142 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 85.1 vs 77.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.5 to 28.1 (median 20.8).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 8 games (63%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.