Michael Penix Jr.
QB
Atlanta Falcons
This is how QBs have played against the Ravens in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IND | Daniel Jones | 19 | 31 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  NO | Tyler Shough | 27 | 34 | 252 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 3 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 25 | 40 | 276 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 18.9 |
| 4 |  TEN | Cam Ward | 20 | 31 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 15.6 |
| Average | 22.8 | 34.0 | 229.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 18.3 | 0.3 | 16.5 | ||
| Median | 22.5 | 32.5 | 237.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 17.3 | ||
| High | 27 | 40 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 22.4 | ||
| Low | 19 | 31 | 166 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Michael Penix Jr. should do vs the RavensSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Ravens, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Michael Penix Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Ravens opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Michael Penix Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Ravens avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Michael Penix Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Michael Penix Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Michael Penix Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Ravens were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | GB | 18 | 25 | 256 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 4 | NO | 15 | 20 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 19 | 32 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 6 | CHI | 19 | 33 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23.1 |
| 7 | SF | 25 | 34 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 8 | TB | 8 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Jr. avg | 17.3 | 28.0 | 213.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 13.8 | |
| Ravens QB1 avg | 22.8 | 34.0 | 229.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 18.3 | 0.3 | 16.5 | |
| Difference | +5.4 | +6.0 | +15.3 | -0.5 | -0.3 | +1.7 | +15.8 | +0.3 | +2.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMichael Penix Jr. vs the Ravens
Prediction for Michael Penix Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Michael Penix Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Ravens.
I predict about 13.3 points for Michael Penix Jr. if playing as a QB1. Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 13.4 over 2 games, and the Ravens have given up 16.5 to QB1s (-1% vs the league average of 16.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Michael Penix Jr. scored: Wk 3 14.0, Wk 4 12.7. Average 13.4; weighted toward recent games it is 13.3.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Ravens allowed 16.5 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.6, so that is -1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 13.3 x 1.00 = 13.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Michael Penix Jr. is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.0 points, leaning on Michael Penix Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 229.0 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 18.3 rushing yards against the Ravens across 4 games.
- The Ravens allow 16.5 PPR points to QB1s, -1% versus the league average of 16.6 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 3 of 4 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.0 to 22.4 (median 17.3).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 4 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.