KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
Los Angeles Chargers
This is how WRs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 2 |  PIT | Germie Bernard | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 3 |  JAX | Parker Washington | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 4 |  BUF | Khalil Shakir | 8 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 13.2 |
| 5 |  LV | Cody White | 4 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 7 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 5 | 4 | 69 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 8 |  MIA | Kevin Coleman Jr. | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 13.6 |
| Average | 5.3 | 3.6 | 49.4 | 0.3 | 9.8 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.5 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | ||
| High | 8 | 7 | 82 | 1 | 13.6 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How KeAndre Lambert-Smith should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game KeAndre Lambert-Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot KeAndre Lambert-Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus KeAndre Lambert-Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than KeAndre Lambert-Smith usually produces.
Projected is KeAndre Lambert-Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | KC | 9 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Lambert-Smith avg | 9.0 | 5.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 6.2 | |
| Patriots WR2 avg | 5.3 | 3.6 | 49.4 | 0.3 | 9.8 | |
| Difference | -3.8 | -1.4 | +17.4 | +0.3 | +3.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 34.8 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lambert-Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · KeAndre Lambert-SmithMedium confidence · 3.9 proj pts1/10 start
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith averages 6.2 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 6.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Patriots have allowed 9.8 points to WR2s over 8 games (+12% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +9% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKeAndre Lambert-Smith vs the Patriots
Prediction for KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Nobody knows which slot KeAndre Lambert-Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 3.9 points for KeAndre Lambert-Smith if playing as a WR2. KeAndre Lambert-Smith has averaged 6.2 over 1 game, and the Patriots have given up 9.8 to WR2s (+12% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. KeAndre Lambert-Smith scored: Wk 6 6.2. Average 6.2; weighted toward recent games it is 3.6.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Patriots allowed 9.8 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +9% adjustment (x1.09).
4. Result. 3.6 x 1.09 = 3.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely KeAndre Lambert-Smith is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.3 points, leaning on KeAndre Lambert-Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.6 receptions, 49.4 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 8 games.
- The Patriots allow 9.8 PPR points to WR2s, +12% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Khalil Shakir (7 rec, 82 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 3.6 vs 3.1; yds 49.4 vs 44.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.5 to 13.6 (median 9.7).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.