Tyler Shough
QB
New Orleans Saints
This is how QBs have played against the Steelers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ATL | Cooper Rush | 12 | 22 | 143 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 2 |  NE | Drake Maye | 14 | 22 | 208 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 3 |  CIN | Joe Burrow | 28 | 37 | 282 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 22.6 |
| 4 |  CLE | Deshaun Watson | 24 | 33 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 5 |  IND | Daniel Jones | 24 | 44 | 267 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 6 |  TB | Jalon Daniels | 22 | 43 | 164 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 11.2 |
| Average | 20.7 | 33.5 | 222.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 11.9 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 35.0 | 237.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 11.1 | ||
| High | 28 | 44 | 282 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 22.6 | ||
| Low | 12 | 22 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tyler Shough should do vs the SteelersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Steelers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tyler Shough has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Steelers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tyler Shough will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Steelers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tyler Shough's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tyler Shough usually produces.
Projected is Tyler Shough's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Steelers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 35 | 56 | 410 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 23.2 |
| 2 | BAL | 27 | 34 | 252 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 3 | LV | 29 | 42 | 255 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 4 | ATL | 30 | 48 | 286 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15.9 |
| 5 | MIN | 16 | 25 | 96 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| 6 | NYG | 16 | 30 | 144 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 27.0 |
| 7 | PIT | 30 | 38 | 278 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13.8 |
| Shough avg | 26.1 | 39.0 | 245.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 15.9 | 0.3 | 18.0 | |
| Steelers QB1 avg | 20.7 | 33.5 | 222.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 11.9 | |
| Difference | -5.5 | -5.5 | -23.9 | -0.9 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.3 | -6.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Shough averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTyler Shough vs the Steelers
Prediction for Tyler Shough
Nobody knows which slot Tyler Shough will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Steelers.
I predict about 13.8 points for Tyler Shough if playing as a QB1. Tyler Shough has averaged 18.7 over 6 games, and the Steelers have given up 11.9 to QB1s (-29% vs the league average of 16.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tyler Shough scored: Wk 1 23.2, Wk 2 22.4, Wk 3 23.8, Wk 4 15.9, Wk 5 -0.2, Wk 6 27.0. Average 18.7; weighted toward recent games it is 17.0.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Steelers allowed 11.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.7, so that is -29%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -19% adjustment (x0.81).
4. Result. 17.0 x 0.81 = 13.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tyler Shough is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.9 points, leaning on Tyler Shough's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 222.0 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 15.8 rushing yards against the Steelers across 6 games.
- The Steelers allow 11.9 PPR points to QB1s, -29% versus the league average of 16.7 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Joe Burrow (22.6 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.9 vs 9.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 6 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.7 to 22.6 (median 11.1).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 6 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.