QBs vs Denver Broncos
As of Week 6 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 |
| 2 |  JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 17 | 29 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Average | 16.0 | 28.0 | 186.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 14.5 | 0.5 | 13.9 | ||
| Median | 16.0 | 28.0 | 186.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 14.5 | 0.5 | 13.9 | ||
| High | 17 | 29 | 189 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 21.7 | ||
| Low | 15 | 27 | 184 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Drew Lock
Nobody knows which slot Drew Lock will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 16.3 points for Drew Lock if playing as a QB1. Drew Lock has averaged 17.1 over 2 games, and the Broncos have given up 13.9 to QB1s (-18% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Drew Lock scored: Wk 1 12.8, Wk 2 21.4. Average 17.1; weighted toward recent games it is 17.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Broncos allowed 13.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is -18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 17.6 x 0.93 = 16.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Drew Lock is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.8 points, leaning on Drew Lock's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 186.5 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 14.5 rushing yards against the Broncos across 2 games.
- The Broncos allow 13.9 PPR points to QB1s, -18% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.2 to 21.7 (median 13.9).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Drew Lock averages 17.1 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 17.6) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Broncos have allowed 13.9 points to QB1s over 2 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Projection: 16.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Drew Lock's stats vs the Broncos
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Drew Lock has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Drew Lock will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Drew Lock's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Drew Lock usually produces.
Projected is Drew Lock's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 16 | 22 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2 | ARI | 19 | 26 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.4 |
| Lock avg | 17.5 | 24.0 | 211.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 17.1 | |
| Broncos QB1 avg | 16.0 | 28.0 | 186.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 14.5 | 0.5 | 13.9 | |
| Difference | -1.5 | +4.0 | -24.5 | -1.0 | +1.0 | +3.5 | +8.0 | +0.5 | -3.2 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 16.3 | 22.3 | 196.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 16.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lock averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.