Case Keenum
QB
Chicago Bears
This is how QBs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Joe Burrow | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2 |  CLE | Deshaun Watson | 24 | 30 | 238 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 3 |  MIN | Kyler Murray | 15 | 29 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 4 |  GB | Jordan Love | 22 | 30 | 197 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 5 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 24 | 42 | 316 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 6 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 33 | 49 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.0 |
| 7 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 14 | 27 | 163 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 8 |  ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 8 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Average | 20.6 | 33.3 | 214.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 11.2 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 30.0 | 217.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 12.9 | ||
| High | 33 | 49 | 316 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19.7 | ||
| Low | 8 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | -1.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Case Keenum should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Case Keenum has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Case Keenum will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Case Keenum's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Case Keenum usually produces.
Projected is Case Keenum's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | PHI | 24 | 34 | 247 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 24.5 |
| 5 | GB | 11 | 19 | 108 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Keenum avg | 17.5 | 26.5 | 177.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 12.6 | |
| Buccaneers QB1 avg | 20.6 | 33.3 | 214.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 11.2 | |
| Difference | +3.1 | +6.8 | +36.8 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +3.8 | -0.5 | -1.4 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 13.4 | 20.3 | 136.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 8.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Keenum averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Case KeenumMedium confidence · 9.3 proj pts1/10 start
- Case Keenum averages 12.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 11.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 11.2 points to QB1s over 8 games (-32% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -23% adjustment.
- Game environment +7%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 26.8 points for CHI (league avg 22.6); Favored by 6: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (55F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Tykee Smith (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 9.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreCase Keenum vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Case Keenum
Nobody knows which slot Case Keenum will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 8.7 points for Case Keenum if playing as a QB1. Case Keenum has averaged 12.6 over 2 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 11.2 to QB1s (-32% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Case Keenum scored: Wk 3 24.5, Wk 5 0.7. Average 12.6; weighted toward recent games it is 11.3.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Buccaneers allowed 11.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is -32%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -23% adjustment (x0.77).
4. Result. 11.3 x 0.77 = 8.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Case Keenum is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.2 points, leaning on Case Keenum's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 214.3 passing yards, 1.3 passing TDs and 8.8 rushing yards against the Buccaneers across 8 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 11.2 PPR points to QB1s, -32% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Deshaun Watson (19.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.2 vs 10.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Michael Penix Jr. (-1.9 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.2 vs 13.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from -1.9 to 19.7 (median 12.9).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 7 of 8 games (88%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.