Trevor Lawrence
QB
Jacksonville Jaguars▲ Hot
This is how QBs have played against the Texans in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 20 | 29 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 |
| 2 |  CIN | Joe Burrow | 20 | 31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.2 |
| 3 |  IND | Daniel Jones | 24 | 36 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 4 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 32 | 45 | 335 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 18.1 |
| 5 |  TEN | Cam Ward | 23 | 36 | 170 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Average | 23.8 | 35.4 | 256.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 16.6 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 36.0 | 235.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 16.2 | ||
| High | 32 | 45 | 335 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 | ||
| Low | 20 | 29 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Trevor Lawrence should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Trevor Lawrence has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Trevor Lawrence will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Trevor Lawrence's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Trevor Lawrence usually produces.
Projected is Trevor Lawrence's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 18 | 23 | 245 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 26.1 |
| 2 | DEN | 17 | 29 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 3 | NE | 19 | 29 | 182 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 19.8 |
| 4 | CIN | 18 | 23 | 227 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 5 | PHI | 24 | 39 | 331 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 21.7 |
| 6 | HOU | 24 | 41 | 306 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 27.3 |
| 8 | IND | 10 | 14 | 210 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 19.4 |
| Lawrence avg | 18.6 | 28.3 | 241.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 19.1 | |
| Texans QB1 avg | 23.8 | 35.4 | 256.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 16.6 | |
| Difference | +5.2 | +7.1 | +14.8 | -1.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -4.2 | +0.4 | -2.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lawrence averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTrevor Lawrence vs the Texans
Prediction for Trevor Lawrence
Nobody knows which slot Trevor Lawrence will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 18.0 points for Trevor Lawrence if playing as a QB1. Trevor Lawrence has averaged 17.4 over 5 games, and the Texans have given up 16.6 to QB1s (-2% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Trevor Lawrence scored: Wk 1 26.1, Wk 2 6.2, Wk 3 19.8, Wk 4 13.1, Wk 5 21.7. Average 17.4; weighted toward recent games it is 18.2.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Texans allowed 16.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is -2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -1% adjustment (x0.99).
4. Result. 18.2 x 0.99 = 18.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Trevor Lawrence is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.3 points, leaning on Trevor Lawrence's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 256.2 passing yards, 1.2 passing TDs and 7.2 rushing yards against the Texans across 5 games.
- The Texans allow 16.6 PPR points to QB1s, -2% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Josh Allen (35.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.6 vs 11.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Cam Ward (5.0 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.6 vs 19.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 5 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.0 to 35.7 (median 16.2).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 5 games (80%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.