Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Seattle Seahawks▲ Hot
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Smith-Njigba's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Malik Nabers | 9 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 2 |  WAS | Stefon Diggs | 6 | 5 | 47 | 2 | 21.7 |
| 3 |  BAL | Zay Flowers | 6 | 5 | 84 | 0 | 15.4 |
| 4 |  HOU | Nico Collins | 8 | 7 | 118 | 2 | 30.8 |
| 5 |  TB | Emeka Egbuka | 9 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 6 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 13 | 6 | 104 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 7 |  PHI | Makai Lemon | 8 | 7 | 67 | 1 | 19.7 |
| 8 |  ARI | Michael Wilson | 15 | 8 | 111 | 1 | 26.8 |
| Average | 9.3 | 6.3 | 79.8 | 0.9 | 20.9 | ||
| Median | 8.5 | 6.0 | 76.5 | 1.0 | 20.7 | ||
| High | 15 | 8 | 118 | 2 | 30.8 | ||
| Low | 6 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 12.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 | LAC | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SF | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 16 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 7 | KC | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 8 | CHI | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.1 | 8.0 | 123.1 | 1.1 | 27.5 | |
| Cowboys WR1 avg | 9.3 | 6.3 | 79.8 | 0.9 | 20.9 | |
| Difference | -1.9 | -1.8 | -43.4 | -0.3 | -6.6 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 142.6 | 1.3 | 29.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaGood confidence · 29.4 proj pts10/10 start
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 27.5 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 26.5) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Cowboys have allowed 20.9 points to WR1s over 8 games (+22% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.2) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 29.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 29.4 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 27.5 over 8 games, and the Cowboys have given up 20.9 to WR1s (+22% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5, Wk 3 35.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 22.8, Wk 6 25.4, Wk 7 31.3, Wk 8 23.8. Average 27.5; weighted toward recent games it is 25.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Cowboys allowed 20.9 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +16% adjustment (x1.16).
4. Result. 25.4 x 1.16 = 29.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (29.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.8 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 29.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 6.3 receptions, 79.8 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the Cowboys across 8 games.
- The Cowboys allow 20.9 PPR points to WR1s, +22% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 8 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.9 to 30.8 (median 20.7).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 8 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.