Michael Penix Jr.
QB
Atlanta Falcons
This is how QBs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Joe Burrow | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2 |  CLE | Deshaun Watson | 24 | 30 | 238 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 3 |  MIN | Kyler Murray | 15 | 29 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 4 |  GB | Jordan Love | 22 | 30 | 197 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 5 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 24 | 42 | 316 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 6 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 33 | 49 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.0 |
| 7 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 14 | 27 | 163 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 8 | ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 8 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Average | 20.6 | 33.3 | 214.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 11.2 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 30.0 | 217.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 12.9 | ||
| High | 33 | 49 | 316 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19.7 | ||
| Low | 8 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | -1.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Michael Penix Jr. should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Michael Penix Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Michael Penix Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Michael Penix Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Michael Penix Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Michael Penix Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | GB | 18 | 25 | 256 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 4 | NO | 15 | 20 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 19 | 32 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 6 | CHI | 19 | 33 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23.1 |
| 7 | SF | 25 | 34 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 8 | TB | 8 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Jr. avg | 17.3 | 28.0 | 213.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 13.8 | |
| Buccaneers QB1 avg | 20.6 | 33.3 | 214.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 11.2 | |
| Difference | +3.3 | +5.3 | +0.6 | -0.3 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +6.3 | +0.0 | -2.6 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 13.3 | 21.5 | 164.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 9.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Michael Penix Jr.Good confidence · 9.8 proj pts1/10 start
- Michael Penix Jr. averages 13.8 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 12.6) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 11.2 points to QB1s over 8 games (-32% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -23% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.4) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 9.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMichael Penix Jr. vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Michael Penix Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Michael Penix Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 9.8 points for Michael Penix Jr. if playing as a QB1. Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 13.8 over 6 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 11.2 to QB1s (-32% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Michael Penix Jr. scored: Wk 3 14.0, Wk 4 12.7, Wk 5 14.4, Wk 6 23.1, Wk 7 20.4, Wk 8 -1.9. Average 13.8; weighted toward recent games it is 12.8.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Buccaneers allowed 11.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is -32%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -23% adjustment (x0.77).
4. Result. 12.8 x 0.77 = 9.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Michael Penix Jr. is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.7 points, leaning on Michael Penix Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 214.3 passing yards, 1.3 passing TDs and 8.8 rushing yards against the Buccaneers across 8 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 11.2 PPR points to QB1s, -32% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Deshaun Watson (19.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.2 vs 10.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Michael Penix Jr. (-1.9 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.2 vs 13.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from -1.9 to 19.7 (median 12.9).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 7 of 8 games (88%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.