Deshaun Watson
QB
Cleveland BrownsQ
- Top target Denzel Boston is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
- Top target Harold Fannin Jr. is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Texans in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 20 | 29 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 |
| 2 |  CIN | Joe Burrow | 20 | 31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.2 |
| 3 |  IND | Daniel Jones | 24 | 36 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 4 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 32 | 45 | 335 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 18.1 |
| 5 |  TEN | Cam Ward | 23 | 36 | 170 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 6 |  JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 24 | 41 | 306 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 27.3 |
| 7 |  NYG | J.J. McCarthy | 20 | 28 | 252 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10.2 |
| Average | 23.3 | 35.1 | 262.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 6.9 | 0.3 | 17.2 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 36.0 | 252.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 16.2 | ||
| High | 32 | 45 | 335 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 | ||
| Low | 20 | 28 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Deshaun Watson should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Deshaun Watson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Deshaun Watson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Deshaun Watson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Deshaun Watson usually produces.
Projected is Deshaun Watson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 16 | 22 | 205 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 2 | TB | 24 | 30 | 238 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 3 | CAR | 16 | 30 | 144 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 4 | PIT | 24 | 33 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 5 | NYJ | 15 | 33 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 6 | BAL | 16 | 26 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 7 | TEN | 25 | 36 | 308 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 18.2 |
| 8 | PIT | 27 | 39 | 324 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| Watson avg | 20.4 | 31.1 | 225.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 27.1 | 0.1 | 14.7 | |
| Texans QB1 avg | 23.3 | 35.1 | 262.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 6.9 | 0.3 | 17.2 | |
| Difference | +2.9 | +4.0 | +37.0 | +0.6 | +0.1 | -3.9 | -20.3 | +0.2 | +2.5 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 21.0 | 32.1 | 232.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 28.0 | 0.1 | 14.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Watson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Deshaun WatsonGood confidence · 14.4 proj pts1/10 start
- Deshaun Watson averages 14.7 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 14.0) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Texans have allowed 17.2 points to QB1s over 7 games (+4% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +3% adjustment.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 14.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDeshaun Watson vs the Texans
Prediction for Deshaun Watson
Nobody knows which slot Deshaun Watson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 14.4 points for Deshaun Watson if playing as a QB1. Deshaun Watson has averaged 14.7 over 8 games, and the Texans have given up 17.2 to QB1s (+4% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Deshaun Watson scored: Wk 1 14.0, Wk 2 19.7, Wk 3 20.3, Wk 4 12.9, Wk 5 12.2, Wk 6 9.5, Wk 7 18.2, Wk 8 11.2. Average 14.7; weighted toward recent games it is 14.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Texans allowed 17.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 14.0 x 1.03 = 14.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Deshaun Watson is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.8 points, leaning on Deshaun Watson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 262.7 passing yards, 1.4 passing TDs and 6.9 rushing yards against the Texans across 7 games.
- The Texans allow 17.2 PPR points to QB1s, +4% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Josh Allen (35.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.2 vs 14.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Trevor Lawrence (27.3 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.2 vs 15.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.0 to 35.7 (median 16.2).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 7 games (71%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.